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Current-account deficit unlikely as Sept trade data surpasses analyst forecastsKuala LumpurEXPECT Malaysia's central bank to raise rates early next year as inflation begins to bite.迷你倉 And notwithstanding doomsayers' predictions, don't expect a current account deficit on the country's balance of payments anytime soon.Despite its acknowledgement that inflation is slowly rising, Bank Negara Malaysia left the overnight policy rate at 3 per cent at its meeting on Thursday. It clearly signalled that governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz was wary of doing anything that could pose a downside risk to growth."Looking ahead, inflation is expected to edge up, driven by domestic cost factors," the central bank said in a statement. However, it added that the inflation outlook would be tempered by various factors, including a stable external price environment and moderate domestic demand pressures.Why did it not raise rates? The central bank was almost explicit: There were "uncertainties in the balance of risks surrounding the outlook for domestic growth and inflation".Ms Zeti clearly knew that growth would continue to be subdued. Others agree with that assessment."We are forecasting third-quarter gross domestic product to remain sluggish, improving slightly to 4.4 per cent from 4.3 in the second quarter," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Chua Hak Bin in a recent report.Mr Chua's full-year forecast for 2013 is 4.3 per cent, and he expects 2014 to fare better with at least 4.8 per cent. Both forecasts, however, are below government projections.Inflation is rising as a result of an oil price hike in September. Indeed, prices r儲存se 2.6 per cent during the month, driven by increases in transport and food prices.While the full-year inflation number is expected to be around 2 per cent, Mr Chua thinks that 2014 could see inflation topping 3 per cent largely because of an expected fuel price hike later in the year.Mr Chua also thinks that electricity tariffs could be raised next year. These suppositions are based on the fact that Prime Minister Najib Razak had promised to cut subsidies by 15 per cent in his recent budget.For these reasons, both Merrill Lynch and Barclays Bank expect interest rates to be hiked by at least 25 basis points next year.Meanwhile, Malaysia's trade data for September surpassed analysts' expectations. Exports rose 5.6 per cent year on year compared with the street's 5 per cent forecast. Imports grew 2.8 per cent compared to the market's consensus of 5.4 per cent.As a result, the trade surplus clocked in at RM8.7 billion (S$3.4 billion), the largest in more than 10 months.The improvement in exports stemmed from gains in both mining and manufacturing, with exports to the region and China improving slightly.The import drop was mainly because of a decline in capital goods' imports, which fell by 2.3 per cent year on year largely due to an already high base.The strengthening trade balance should allay concerns among economists about Malaysia's rapidly shrinking surplus on the current account of its balance of payments. The speed of its decline had raised fears that the country could once again post twin deficits as it did in 1998.The currencies of India and Indonesia have been attacked following just such a phenomenon.mini storage